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Issue:ISSN 1000-7083
          CN 51-1193/Q
Director:Sichuan Association for Science and Technology
Sponsored by:Sichuan Society of Zoologists; Chengdu Giant Panda Breeding Research Foundation; Sichuan Association of Wildlife Conservation; Sichuan University
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Using MaxEnt model to predict the potential habitats of Pine wilt nematodes in Sichuan Province
Author of the article:WEI Shu-ting1, LI Tao2, LIN Yu-cheng1, *
Author's Workplace:1. College of Life Sciences, Sichuan University, Chengdu, Sichuan 610065, China; 2. General Station of Forest Plant Quarantine and Pest Control of Sichuan Province, Chengdu, Sichuan 610081, China
Key Words:Pine wilt nematodes; MaxEnt entropy model; AUC value; Jackknife; Suitable occur areas
Abstract:Bursaphelenchus xylophilus (Pine wood nematode) is one of the hazardous forestry quarantine pests in China, which the pine wilt disease triggered by it has caused great economic loss and seriously hindered the development of forestry health. To monitor and control this disease in Sichuan province, it is necessary to investigate the potential distribution area of Bursaphelenchus xylophilus for the Sichuan forestry bureau. Based on the geographic distribution data (Bursaphelenchus xylophilus: n=208; Monochamus alternatus: n=803) and bioclimatic data (n=19), the potential distribution of Bursaphelenchus xylophilus in Sichuan Province is predicted by the ecological niche modeling software MaxEnt (the maximum entropy model) and ArcGIS (Geographic information System). Meanwhile, the AUC values were used to test the simulation precision, and the “Jackknife” was detected the importance of the environmental variables. The results showed the training data AUC was 0.960 in the simulations that indicated a better investigated. The highly suitable area for Bursaphelenchus xylophilus was Yibin, Guang’an, Dazhou, Zigong, and the ecotone of Leshan and Meishan Cities, and Xichang City of Liangshan Prefecture. The important environmental factors affecting the distribution of Bursaphelenchus xylophilus were as following: the mean temperature of driest season (1.5~8.0℃, 6.4℃), the seasonal precipitation (340 mm), the lowest temperature of coldest month (0.4~2.5℃°C, 1.9℃), the elevation (<3 000 m, 250 m), the annual temperature range (5.9~9.1℃, 5.9℃), and the annual precipitation (68~135 mm, 68mm).
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